David Cameron’s pronouncements on the drink ‘scandal’ last week* inevitably provoked renewed calls for minimum alcohol pricing. In the political dictionary of intention, the prime minister’s private view on whether we should introduce this measure is reported to be just shy of ‘minded to’. He risks conflict with other members of the Cabinet if he goes further than that.
Meanwhile, the Scottish Government is pressing ahead with a minimum unit pricing plan, although it’s been warned it should run it past Europe first, in case it flouts competition law.
Interestingly, the NHS is taking the prospect seriously. The other day it released a briefing paper on how it intends to evaluate minimum pricing in Scotland, crucially important since the Scots will be pretty much pioneering the idea, notwithstanding the Canadian examples, which aren’t especially comparable, and the much-vaunted Sheffield University model, which is only a model.
The NHS paper suggests it is aware of the complexity of minimum pricing’s potential impact, paying attention to different populations and unintended consequences.
It’s the intended consequence, a reduction in alcohol consumption and, with it they hope, alcohol harm, that could prove the tricky one to assess, bearing in mind drink sales are falling pretty steadily, and especially in the off-trade over the past year. How will they be able to to tell the part minimum pricing is playing in that?
Among the unintended consequences is likely to be a boost in profits for the supermarkets which will effectively be able to engage in legalised price-fixing. They might even be inventivised to promote alcohol even more than they’re doing now, since it will become a more profitable product for them.
What worries me more, though, is the impact on addicted drinkers. Defending minimum pricing against the charge that it penalises moderate drinkers, its supporters have argued that heavy drinkers will be hit most. Which makes sense – until you come to the kind of heavy drinkers who aren’t put off doing it when the next drink might kill them, let alone by paying a few extra pence.
Minimum pricing won’t work for these people, the Sheffield academics have admitted. But will it have a negative effect? As unemployment and poverty deepen, we’re already seeing a growth in illicit booze, including industrial alcohol bottled as vodka.
It’s possible the addicted drinker, priced out of the official market, will turn to these cheap but dangerous alternatives. For them, a higher price might amount to prohibition, and all the troubles that come with it.
*You can read my views on this at www.philmellows.com